Lisa Hrabluk

Changes comes slowing in Atlantic Canada, particularly during a federal election campaign.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper and the federal Conservatives continue to find this region of the country resistent to their overtures, and in the case of Newfoundland and Labrador, comically enraged at Harper’s new deal for Atlantic Canada.

There are 32 ridings in the four Atlantic provinces – seven in NL, 11 in NS, 10 in NB and four in PEI – but only a handful will likely switch parties on election night.

Here are my early predictions for Atlantic Canada:

Newfoundland and Labrador

• Current: 4 Tories – 3 Liberals
• Oct. 14: 1 Tories – 5 Liberals — 1 NDP

Nova Scotia

• Current: 2 Tories – 6 Liberals — 2 NDP — 1 Independent
• Oct. 14: 2 Tories – 6 Liberals — 2 NDP — 1 Independent

PEI

• Current: 4 Liberals
• Oct. 14: 3 Liberals — 1 Tory

New Brunswick

• Current: 3 Tories — 6 Liberals — 1 NDP
• Oct. 14: 5 Tories — 4 Liberals — 1 NDP

For those doing the math, Atlantic Canada will likely be a wash for the Tories, with New Brunswick helping the Tories hold their overall six-seat total after they are shut out of Newfoundland and Labrador; the Liberals will drop one seat to 18 from 19 seats and the NDP may get a surprise steal, courtesy of Danny Williams’ ABC campaign.

All this means that Atlantic Canadians shouldn’t expect to see much of Stephen Harper during this campaign – his quest for 28 additional seats and a majority government lie elsewhere in southern Ontario and Quebec.

Atlantic Canadians may be the first to vote on election day, but predictably they aren’t likely at the top of the party leaders’ lists for who to woo during this campaign.